Market comparison
Bank of Russia rate decision in October
2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗3 outcomes · $389K reported volume
Observed 48s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $14K reported volume
Observed 48s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
- Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
- Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Maintain current rate Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Cut 1-25bps Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Cut more than 25bps Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Decrease Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Hike 1-25bps Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Hike more than 25bps Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Increase Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Maintain current rate
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Cut 1-25bps
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Cut more than 25bps
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Decrease
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Hike 1-25bps
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Hike more than 25bps
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Increase
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.