Market comparison

Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 14

2 venues · 34 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 33s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 11, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

28 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 33s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 9, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 14
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Choosin' Texas Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	99.2% Bid 99.0% · Ask 99.4% Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley Open Polymarket ↗	27.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 90.0% Choosin' Texas Open Kalshi ↗	72.2 pp
expectations Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% expectations Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
HOUSEWIFE Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2% Housewife - Tate McRae Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% HOUSEWIFE Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
Lies Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Lies - Zach Bryan Featuring Lana Del Rey Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Lies Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Patient Zero Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Patient Zero - Taylor Swift Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Patient Zero Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Thriller Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Thriller - Michael Jackson Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Thriller Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Babydoll Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Babydoll Open Kalshi ↗	—
BbY WOW Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% BbY WOW Open Kalshi ↗	—
BE HER Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% BE HER Open Kalshi ↗	—
Been By Now Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Been By Now Open Kalshi ↗	—
Boston Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Boston Open Kalshi ↗	—
Disturbia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0% Disturbia Open Kalshi ↗	—
Dracula Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 76.0% Dracula Open Kalshi ↗	—
Earrings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Earrings Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ghostbusters Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0% Ghostbusters Open Kalshi ↗	—
hate that i made you love me Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% hate that i made you love me Open Kalshi ↗	—
I Just Might Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% I Just Might Open Kalshi ↗	—
JADED Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% JADED Open Kalshi ↗	—
LOVING LIFE AGAIN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% LOVING LIFE AGAIN Open Kalshi ↗	—
Midnight Sun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Midnight Sun Open Kalshi ↗	—
Monster Mash Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0% Monster Mash Open Kalshi ↗	—
Nicole Kidman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nicole Kidman Open Kalshi ↗	—
Psycho Killer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 35.0% Psycho Killer Open Kalshi ↗	—
Risk It All Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Risk It All Open Kalshi ↗	—
Somebody's Watching Me Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0% Somebody's Watching Me Open Kalshi ↗	—
Song 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 2 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 3 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 4 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 6 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 7 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Spooky, Scary Skeletons Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0% Spooky, Scary Skeletons Open Kalshi ↗	—
stupid song Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% stupid song Open Kalshi ↗	—
This Is Halloween Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0% This Is Halloween Open Kalshi ↗	—

Choosin' Texas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

99.2%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 99.4%

Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 90.0%

Choosin' Texas

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 72.2 pp

expectations

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

expectations

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

HOUSEWIFE

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2%

Housewife - Tate McRae

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

HOUSEWIFE

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Lies

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Lies - Zach Bryan Featuring Lana Del Rey

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Lies

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Patient Zero

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Patient Zero - Taylor Swift

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Patient Zero

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Thriller

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Thriller - Michael Jackson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Thriller

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Babydoll

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Babydoll

Open Kalshi ↗

BbY WOW

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BbY WOW

Open Kalshi ↗

BE HER

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BE HER

Open Kalshi ↗

Been By Now

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Been By Now

Open Kalshi ↗

Boston

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Boston

Open Kalshi ↗

Disturbia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0%

Disturbia

Open Kalshi ↗

Dracula

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 76.0%

Dracula

Open Kalshi ↗

Earrings

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Earrings

Open Kalshi ↗

Ghostbusters

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0%

Ghostbusters

Open Kalshi ↗

hate that i made you love me

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

hate that i made you love me

Open Kalshi ↗

I Just Might

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

I Just Might

Open Kalshi ↗

JADED

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

JADED

Open Kalshi ↗

LOVING LIFE AGAIN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

LOVING LIFE AGAIN

Open Kalshi ↗

Midnight Sun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Midnight Sun

Open Kalshi ↗

Monster Mash

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0%

Monster Mash

Open Kalshi ↗

Nicole Kidman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nicole Kidman

Open Kalshi ↗

Psycho Killer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 35.0%

Psycho Killer

Open Kalshi ↗

Risk It All

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Risk It All

Open Kalshi ↗

Somebody's Watching Me

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0%

Somebody's Watching Me

Open Kalshi ↗

Song 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 2 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 3 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 4 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 6 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 7 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Spooky, Scary Skeletons

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0%

Spooky, Scary Skeletons

Open Kalshi ↗

stupid song

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

stupid song

Open Kalshi ↗

This Is Halloween

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 90.0%

This Is Halloween

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets