Market comparison

Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31

2 venues · 31 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $26K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

25 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Been By Now Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Been By Now - Morgan Wallen Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Been By Now Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Boston Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Boston - Stella Lefty Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Boston Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Choosin' Texas Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	28.0% Bid 13.1% · Ask 42.8% Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley Open Polymarket ↗	42.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 53.0% Choosin' Texas Open Kalshi ↗	14.0 pp
expectations Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% expectations Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
HOUSEWIFE Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	36.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 47.0% Housewife - Tate McRae Open Polymarket ↗	40.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 51.0% HOUSEWIFE Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Patient Zero Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6% Patient Zero - Taylor Swift Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 38.0% Patient Zero Open Kalshi ↗	0.7 pp
Solar Eclipse Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Solar Eclipse - Drake & Don Toliver Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Solar Eclipse Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Babydoll Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Babydoll Open Kalshi ↗	—
BbY WOW Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% BbY WOW Open Kalshi ↗	—
BE HER Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% BE HER Open Kalshi ↗	—
Earrings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Earrings Open Kalshi ↗	—
hate that i made you love me Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% hate that i made you love me Open Kalshi ↗	—
I Just Might Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% I Just Might Open Kalshi ↗	—
LAST THING YOU NEED Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% LAST THING YOU NEED Open Kalshi ↗	—
Lies Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Lies Open Kalshi ↗	—
LODI WHEN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% LODI WHEN Open Kalshi ↗	—
LOVING LIFE AGAIN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% LOVING LIFE AGAIN Open Kalshi ↗	—
Man I Need Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Man I Need Open Kalshi ↗	—
Midnight Sun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Midnight Sun Open Kalshi ↗	—
Nicole Kidman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nicole Kidman Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quebec Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Quebec Open Kalshi ↗	—
Risk It All Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Risk It All Open Kalshi ↗	—
ROBOT KILLED THE WORKING MAN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% ROBOT KILLED THE WORKING MAN Open Kalshi ↗	—
Song 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 2 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 3 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 4 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 6 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Song 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 7 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
stupid song Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% stupid song Open Kalshi ↗	—
the cure Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% the cure Open Kalshi ↗	—

Been By Now

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Been By Now - Morgan Wallen

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Been By Now

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Boston

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Boston - Stella Lefty

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Boston

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Choosin' Texas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 13.1% · Ask 42.8%

Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 53.0%

Choosin' Texas

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 14.0 pp

expectations

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

expectations

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

HOUSEWIFE

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 47.0%

Housewife - Tate McRae

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 51.0%

HOUSEWIFE

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Patient Zero

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6%

Patient Zero - Taylor Swift

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 38.0%

Patient Zero

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Solar Eclipse

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Solar Eclipse - Drake & Don Toliver

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Solar Eclipse

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Babydoll

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Babydoll

Open Kalshi ↗

BbY WOW

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BbY WOW

Open Kalshi ↗

BE HER

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BE HER

Open Kalshi ↗

Earrings

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Earrings

Open Kalshi ↗

hate that i made you love me

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

hate that i made you love me

Open Kalshi ↗

I Just Might

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

I Just Might

Open Kalshi ↗

LAST THING YOU NEED

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

LAST THING YOU NEED

Open Kalshi ↗

Lies

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Lies

Open Kalshi ↗

LODI WHEN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

LODI WHEN

Open Kalshi ↗

LOVING LIFE AGAIN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

LOVING LIFE AGAIN

Open Kalshi ↗

Man I Need

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Man I Need

Open Kalshi ↗

Midnight Sun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Midnight Sun

Open Kalshi ↗

Nicole Kidman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nicole Kidman

Open Kalshi ↗

Quebec

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Quebec

Open Kalshi ↗

Risk It All

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Risk It All

Open Kalshi ↗

ROBOT KILLED THE WORKING MAN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

ROBOT KILLED THE WORKING MAN

Open Kalshi ↗

Song 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 2 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 3 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 4 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 6 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Song 7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 7 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

stupid song

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

stupid song

Open Kalshi ↗

the cure

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

the cure

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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