Market comparison

CA-17 House winner?

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 32s ago

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 32s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CA-17 House winner?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	98.6% Bid 97.2% · Ask 99.6% Ro Khanna Open Kalshi ↗	97.9% Bid 96.5% · Ask 99.2% Ro Khanna (D) Open Polymarket ↗	0.7 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.4% Ritesh Tandon Open Kalshi ↗	2.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.9% Ritesh Tandon (R) Open Polymarket ↗	1.1 pp
Ethan Agarwal Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.9% Ethan Agarwal Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ha T Phan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.4% Ha T Phan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jason Park Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.4% Jason Park Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nicholas Finan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.4% Nicholas Finan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ritesh Tandon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 3.6% Ritesh Tandon Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ro Khanna Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.2% Bid 97.2% · Ask 99.9% Ro Khanna Open Kalshi ↗	—	—