Market comparison

Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 15s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 15s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Aboian Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	47.6% Bid 47.3% · Ask 47.9% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Open Polymarket ↗	48.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0% Valerio Aboian Open Kalshi ↗	0.4 pp
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.5% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.5% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.5% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Set Handicap: Miguel Tobon (-1.5) vs Valerio Aboian (+1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 Winner · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 O/U 9.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 O/U 10.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Set Handicap: Valerio Aboian (-1.5) vs Miguel Tobon (+1.5) · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 O/U 8.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Completed Match Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Completed Match Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Miguel Tobon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% Miguel Tobon Open Kalshi ↗	—

Aboian

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

47.6%

Bid 47.3% · Ask 47.9%

Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon

Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon

Polymarket

Kalshi

Known rule differences between venues

Aboian

Polymarket

Kalshi