Market comparison

California Governor Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 30s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 30s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for California Governor Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Becerra 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.8% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.6% Becerra 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.1% Becerra 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0% Becerra 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0% Becerra 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.1% Becerra 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.9% Becerra 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.9% Becerra 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 40%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Becerra 40%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrats, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.2% Democrats, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.2% Bid 86.0% · Ask 96.0% Democrats, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 85.0% Democrats, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	77.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 77.0% Democrats, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 65.0% Democrats, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	49.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 49.0% Democrats, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 33.0% Democrats, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 22.0% Democrats, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.1% Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0% Democrats, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.7% Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.9% Democrats, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hilton Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.6% Hilton Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Becerra 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.8%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.6%

Becerra 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.1%

Becerra 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0%

Becerra 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0%

Becerra 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

34.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.1%

Becerra 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.9%

Becerra 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.9%

Becerra 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 40%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Becerra 40%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrats, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.2%

Democrats, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.2%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 96.0%

Democrats, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 85.0%

Democrats, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

77.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 77.0%

Democrats, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 65.0%

Democrats, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 49.0%

Democrats, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 33.0%

Democrats, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 22.0%

Democrats, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.1%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0%

Democrats, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.7%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.9%

Democrats, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hilton Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.6%

Hilton Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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