Market comparison

California Governor margin of victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 13s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for California Governor margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Becerra 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.8% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.6% Becerra 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.1% Becerra 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0% Becerra 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0% Becerra 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.3% Bid 31.7% · Ask 38.9% Becerra 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.9% Becerra 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.9% Becerra 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Becerra 40%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Becerra 40%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrats, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.3% Democrats, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.1% Bid 84.0% · Ask 93.1% Democrats, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	78.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 81.0% Democrats, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 72.0% Democrats, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Democrats, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	47.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 47.0% Democrats, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Democrats, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.0% Democrats, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.1% Bid 3.2% · Ask 15.0% Democrats, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrats, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.7% Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.9% Democrats, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hilton Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.7% Hilton Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Becerra 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.8%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.6%

Becerra 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.1%

Becerra 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0%

Becerra 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0%

Becerra 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

35.3%

Bid 31.7% · Ask 38.9%

Becerra 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.9%

Becerra 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.9%

Becerra 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Becerra 40%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Becerra 40%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrats, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.3%

Democrats, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.1%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 93.1%

Democrats, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 81.0%

Democrats, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 72.0%

Democrats, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Democrats, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 47.0%

Democrats, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Democrats, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.0%

Democrats, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.1%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 15.0%

Democrats, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrats, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.7%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.9%

Democrats, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hilton Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.7%

Hilton Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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