Market comparison

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $32K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 23s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Central Bank of Chile decision in October
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Cut 1-25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Cut 1-25bps Open Kalshi ↗	1.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.5% 25 bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	2.7 pp
Cut more than 25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Cut more than 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 50+ bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	4.0 pp
Hike 1-25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Hike 1-25bps Open Kalshi ↗	2.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.5% 25 bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Hike more than 25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Hike more than 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 50+ bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	2.9 pp
Maintain current rate Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	97.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 98.0% Maintain current rate Open Kalshi ↗	97.9% Bid 96.9% · Ask 98.9% No change Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp

Cut 1-25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Cut 1-25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.5%

25 bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

Cut more than 25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Cut more than 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

50+ bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

Hike 1-25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Hike 1-25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.5%

25 bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Hike more than 25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Hike more than 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

50+ bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.9 pp

Maintain current rate

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 98.0%

Maintain current rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

97.9%

Bid 96.9% · Ask 98.9%

No change

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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