Market comparison

Clarence mayoral election winner?

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $22K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $8K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Clarence mayoral election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Brendan Blomeley Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	62.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 69.0% Brendan Blomeley Open Polymarket ↗	57.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 58.0% Brendan Blomeley Open Kalshi ↗	5.0 pp
Dean Young Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	6.7% Bid 1.4% · Ask 11.9% Dean Young Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 16.0% Dean Young Open Kalshi ↗	4.3 pp
Drew Jenner Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	4.6% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.2% Drew Jenner Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% Drew Jenner Open Kalshi ↗	4.4 pp
Tony Mulder Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	22.1% Bid 21.3% · Ask 23.0% Tony Mulder Open Polymarket ↗	24.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 31.0% Tony Mulder Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
James Walker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% James Walker Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Brendan Blomeley

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

62.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 69.0%

Brendan Blomeley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

57.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 58.0%

Brendan Blomeley

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 5.0 pp

Dean Young

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

6.7%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 11.9%

Dean Young

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 16.0%

Dean Young

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.3 pp

Drew Jenner

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

4.6%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.2%

Drew Jenner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0%

Drew Jenner

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.4 pp

Tony Mulder

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

22.1%

Bid 21.3% · Ask 23.0%

Tony Mulder

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 31.0%

Tony Mulder

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

James Walker

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

James Walker

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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