Market comparison

CMA Album of the Year 2026

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Album of the Year 2026
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Ain't In It For My Health Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.1% Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.6% Ain't in It for My Health (Zach Top) Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Ain’t In It For My Health Open Kalshi ↗	3.9 pp
Dandelion Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	64.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0% Dandelion (Ella Langley) Open Polymarket ↗	67.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 72.0% Dandelion Open Kalshi ↗	3.0 pp
Middle of Nowhere Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.5% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.4% Middle of Nowhere (Kacey Musgraves) Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Middle of Nowhere Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Parker McCollum Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.7% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.3% Parker McCollum (Parker McCollum) Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% Parker McCollum Open Kalshi ↗	4.3 pp
The Way I Am Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	25.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% The Way I Am (Luke Combs) Open Polymarket ↗	24.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0% The Way I Am Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Ain't In It For My Health

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.1%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.6%

Ain't in It for My Health (Zach Top)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0%

Ain’t In It For My Health

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.9 pp

Dandelion

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

64.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0%

Dandelion (Ella Langley)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 72.0%

Dandelion

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

Middle of Nowhere

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.4%

Middle of Nowhere (Kacey Musgraves)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Middle of Nowhere

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Parker McCollum

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.3%

Parker McCollum (Parker McCollum)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0%

Parker McCollum

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.3 pp

The Way I Am

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0%

The Way I Am (Luke Combs)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0%

The Way I Am

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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