Market comparison

CMA Awards: New Artist of the Year

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $11K reported volume

Observed 24s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 24s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Awards: New Artist of the Year
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Avery Anna Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.7% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2% Avery Anna Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Avery Anna Open Kalshi ↗	3.4 pp
Carter Faith Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.6% Carter Faith Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Carter Faith Open Kalshi ↗	2.7 pp
Emily Ann Roberts Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.5% Bid 0.9% · Ask 10.1% Emily Ann Roberts Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% Emily Ann Roberts Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Stephen Wilson Jr. Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	48.5% Bid 46.0% · Ask 51.0% Stephen Wilson Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 50.0% Stephen Wilson Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Tucker Wetmore Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	44.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 45.0% Tucker Wetmore Open Polymarket ↗	43.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0% Tucker Wetmore Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Avery Anna

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2%

Avery Anna

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Avery Anna

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

Carter Faith

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.6%

Carter Faith

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Carter Faith

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

Emily Ann Roberts

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 10.1%

Emily Ann Roberts

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

Emily Ann Roberts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Stephen Wilson Jr.

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

48.5%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 51.0%

Stephen Wilson Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 50.0%

Stephen Wilson Jr.

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Tucker Wetmore

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

44.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 45.0%

Tucker Wetmore

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0%

Tucker Wetmore

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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