The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

CMA Awards: Single of the Year

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Be Her

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 5.7%

Be Her (Ella Langley)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Be Her

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Choosin' Texas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

84.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 85.0%

Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 89.0%

Choosin’ Texas

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

I Knew It, I Knew You

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

2.2%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.6%

I Knew It, I Knew You (Taylor Swift)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

I Knew It, I Knew You

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

Somewhere Over Laredo

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Somewhere Over Laredo (Lainey Wilson)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Somewhere Over Laredo

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

The Fall

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.5%

The Fall (Cody Johnson)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

The Fall

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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