Market comparison

CMA Awards: Vocal Duo of the Year

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Awards: Vocal Duo of the Year
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Brooks & Dunn Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	64.5% Bid 61.0% · Ask 68.0% Brooks & Dunn Open Polymarket ↗	65.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 65.0% Brooks & Dunn Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Brothers Osborne Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	20.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0% Brothers Osborne Open Polymarket ↗	18.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 23.0% Brothers Osborne Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Dan + Shay Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	16.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0% Dan + Shay Open Polymarket ↗	16.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 16.0% Dan + Shay Open Kalshi ↗	0.0 pp
Muscadine Bloodline Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0% Muscadine Bloodline Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Muscadine Bloodline Open Kalshi ↗	3.4 pp
Thelma & James Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.7% Thelma & James Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Thelma & James Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Brooks & Dunn

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

64.5%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 68.0%

Brooks & Dunn

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 65.0%

Brooks & Dunn

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Brothers Osborne

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0%

Brothers Osborne

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 23.0%

Brothers Osborne

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Dan + Shay

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0%

Dan + Shay

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 16.0%

Dan + Shay

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

Muscadine Bloodline

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0%

Muscadine Bloodline

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Muscadine Bloodline

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

Thelma & James

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.7%

Thelma & James

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Thelma & James

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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