Market comparison

CMA Entertainer of the Year 2026

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Entertainer of the Year 2026
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Chris Stapleton Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.5% Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.4% Chris Stapleton Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Chris Stapleton Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Cody Johnson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.6% Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.8% Cody Johnson Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Cody Johnson Open Kalshi ↗	2.6 pp
Ella Langley Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	77.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 85.0% Ella Langley Open Polymarket ↗	84.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 84.0% Ella Langley Open Kalshi ↗	7.0 pp
Lainey Wilson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	14.8% Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.5% Lainey Wilson Open Polymarket ↗	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Lainey Wilson Open Kalshi ↗	1.7 pp
Luke Combs Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.3% Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.7% Luke Combs Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Luke Combs Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Chris Stapleton

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.4%

Chris Stapleton

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Chris Stapleton

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Cody Johnson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.8%

Cody Johnson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Cody Johnson

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.6 pp

Ella Langley

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

77.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 85.0%

Ella Langley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 84.0%

Ella Langley

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 7.0 pp

Lainey Wilson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

14.8%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.5%

Lainey Wilson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

Lainey Wilson

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

Luke Combs

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.7%

Luke Combs

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Luke Combs

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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