Market comparison

CMA Female Vocalist of the Year 2026

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $11K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Female Vocalist of the Year 2026
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Ella Langley Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	77.5% Bid 75.0% · Ask 80.0% Ella Langley Open Polymarket ↗	79.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 79.0% Ella Langley Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Kacey Musgraves Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.2% Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.8% Kacey Musgraves Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Kacey Musgraves Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Lainey Wilson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	16.9% Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.8% Lainey Wilson Open Polymarket ↗	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0% Lainey Wilson Open Kalshi ↗	1.1 pp
Megan Moroney Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Megan Moroney Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Megan Moroney Open Kalshi ↗	2.8 pp
Miranda Lambert Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.2% Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.0% Miranda Lambert Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Miranda Lambert Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Ella Langley

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

77.5%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 80.0%

Ella Langley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 79.0%

Ella Langley

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Kacey Musgraves

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.8%

Kacey Musgraves

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Kacey Musgraves

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Lainey Wilson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

16.9%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.8%

Lainey Wilson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0%

Lainey Wilson

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Megan Moroney

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Megan Moroney

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Megan Moroney

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

Miranda Lambert

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.0%

Miranda Lambert

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

Miranda Lambert

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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