Market comparison

CMA Male Vocalist of the Year 2026

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Male Vocalist of the Year 2026
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Chris Stapleton Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	24.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 31.0% Chris Stapleton Open Polymarket ↗	30.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 32.0% Chris Stapleton Open Kalshi ↗	5.5 pp
Cody Johnson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	45.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 53.0% Cody Johnson Open Polymarket ↗	45.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 56.0% Cody Johnson Open Kalshi ↗	0.0 pp
Luke Combs Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	21.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 29.0% Luke Combs Open Polymarket ↗	25.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 25.0% Luke Combs Open Kalshi ↗	4.0 pp
Stephen Wilson Jr. Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.5% Bid 1.5% · Ask 7.4% Stephen Wilson Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Stephen Wilson Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	1.6 pp
Zach Top Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.9% Zach Top Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Zach Top Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Chris Stapleton

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 31.0%

Chris Stapleton

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 32.0%

Chris Stapleton

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

Cody Johnson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

45.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 53.0%

Cody Johnson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 56.0%

Cody Johnson

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

Luke Combs

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

21.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 29.0%

Luke Combs

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 25.0%

Luke Combs

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

Stephen Wilson Jr.

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 7.4%

Stephen Wilson Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Stephen Wilson Jr.

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.6 pp

Zach Top

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.9%

Zach Top

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Zach Top

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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