Market comparison

CMA Music Video of the Year 2026

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $16K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for CMA Music Video of the Year 2026
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Choosin' Texas Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	54.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) Open Polymarket ↗	57.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 59.0% Choosin’ Texas Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Dry Spell Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 2.9% Dry Spell (Kacey Musgraves) Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Dry Spell Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
Gary Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	25.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 32.0% Gary (Stephen Wilson Jr.) Open Polymarket ↗	26.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 27.0% Gary Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
The Fall Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.8% Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.9% The Fall (Cody Johnson) Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% The Fall Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
White Horse Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	11.4% Bid 7.3% · Ask 15.5% White Horse (Chris Stapleton) Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% White Horse Open Kalshi ↗	0.4 pp
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

Choosin' Texas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

54.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

57.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 59.0%

Choosin’ Texas

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Dry Spell

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 2.9%

Dry Spell (Kacey Musgraves)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Dry Spell

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Gary

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 32.0%

Gary (Stephen Wilson Jr.)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 27.0%

Gary

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

The Fall

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.9%

The Fall (Cody Johnson)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

The Fall

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

White Horse

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

11.4%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 15.5%

White Horse (Chris Stapleton)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

White Horse

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets