The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

CMA Musical Event of the Year 2026

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 18, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

A Song To Sing

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

43.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 48.0%

A Song To Sing (Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0%

A Song To Sing

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 6.0 pp

Horses and Divorces

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 15.0%

Horses and Divorces (Kacey Musgraves featuring Miranda Lambert)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0%

Horses and Divorces

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

I Can't Love You Anymore

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 36.0%

I Can't Love You Anymore (Ella Langley and Morgan Wallen)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 41.0%

I Can’t Love You Anymore

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 5.0 pp

If I Don't Leave I'm Gonna Stay

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.8%

If I Don't Leave I'm Gonna Stay (Carly Pearce and Riley Green)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0%

If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

McArthur

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

5.2%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 8.9%

McArthur (HARDY, Eric Church, Morgan Wallen and Tim McGraw)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

McArthur

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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