Market comparison
Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
2 venues · 1 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $93K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $18K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.
Known rule differences between venues
- Polymarket counts the CEO ceasing to hold the role for any length of time from its creation date; Kalshi asks whether they are no longer CEO by the deadline. A brief interim change can split them.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Yes Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.2 pp |
Yes
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.2 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.