Market comparison

Eternal Fire vs. Sinners

2 venues · 21 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $200K reported volume

Observed 20s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 20s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Eternal Fire vs. Sinners
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Sinners Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	21.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Match Winner Open Polymarket ↗	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Sinners Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Eternal Fire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 82.0% Eternal Fire Open Kalshi ↗	—
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-12.5) vs Eternal Fire (+12.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-12.5) vs Eternal Fire (+12.5) · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 1 Winner Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 1 Winner · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Sinners (+3.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Sinners (+3.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Sinners (+3.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs Sinners (+6.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 2 Winner Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 100.0% Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid — · Ask 0.6% Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
O/U 2.5 Games Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.7% Bid 99.4% · Ask 100.0% O/U 2.5 Games Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Sinners

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Match Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Sinners

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Eternal Fire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 82.0%

Eternal Fire

Open Kalshi ↗

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-12.5) vs Eternal Fire (+12.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-12.5) vs Eternal Fire (+12.5) · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 1 Winner

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 1 Winner · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Sinners (+3.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Sinners (+3.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Sinners (+3.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs Sinners (+6.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sinners (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Winner

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 100.0%

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid — · Ask 0.6%

Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

O/U 2.5 Games

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

99.7%

Bid 99.4% · Ask 100.0%

O/U 2.5 Games

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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