Market comparison
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $873K reported volume
Observed 31s ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 28, 2027
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $286K reported volume
Observed 31s ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 27, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
- Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
- Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
25 bps decrease Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.0 pp | ||
25 bps increase Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
50+ bps decrease Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.4 pp | ||
50+ bps increase Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.8 pp | ||
No change Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp |
25 bps decrease
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.0 pp
25 bps increase
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
50+ bps decrease
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.4 pp
50+ bps increase
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.8 pp
No change
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.