Market comparison

Fed decision in Jan 2028?

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $69K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 27, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $8K reported volume

Observed 18s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 26, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Fed decision in Jan 2028?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Cut >25bps Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 17.0% Cut 25bps Open Kalshi ↗ 4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Cut >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fed maintains rate Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 64.0% Fed maintains rate Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hike >25bps Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 21.0% Hike >25bps Open Kalshi ↗ 13.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0% Hike 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hike-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.2% Hike-Pause-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hike-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2% Hike-Hike-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hike-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 4.7% · Ask 6.3% Hike-Hike-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hike-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.6% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.6% Hike-Pause-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Pause-Hike-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.7% Bid 3.6% · Ask 9.7% Pause-Pause-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Pause-Hike-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% Pause-Pause-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Cut >25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 17.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Fed maintains rate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 64.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Hike >25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 21.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

13.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Hike-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.2%

Hike-Pause-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hike-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2%

Hike-Hike-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hike-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.7% · Ask 6.3%

Hike-Hike-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hike-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.6%

Hike-Pause-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Pause-Hike-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.7%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 9.7%

Pause-Pause-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

59.5%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0%

Pause-Hike-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

Pause-Pause-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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