Market comparison
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $56.7M reported volume
Observed 33s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 29, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $14.2M reported volume
Observed 33s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
- Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
- Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
25 bps decrease Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
25 bps increase Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
50+ bps decrease Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
50+ bps increase Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
No change Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp |
25 bps decrease
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.8 pp
25 bps increase
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
50+ bps decrease
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
50+ bps increase
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.7 pp
No change
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.