Market comparison

Fed decision in Sep 2027?

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $406K reported volume

Observed 30s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 9, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $54K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Sep 15, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Fed decision in Sep 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Cut >25bps Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0% Cut 25bps Open Kalshi ↗ 1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0% Cut >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fed maintains rate Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 85.0% Fed maintains rate Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hike 25bps Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 24.0% Hike 25bps Open Kalshi ↗ 6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0% Hike >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hike–Hike–Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	72.5% Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0% Hike–Pause–Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hike–Hike–Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 2.1% · Ask 2.9% Hike–Hike–Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hike–Pause–Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Hike–Pause–Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hike–Pause–Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 1.2% · Ask 2.1% Hike–Hike–Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause–Pause–Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pause–Hike–Hike · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause–Pause–Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pause–Pause–Hike · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause–Pause–Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pause–Pause–Pause · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pause–Pause–Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pause–Hike–Pause · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Cut >25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Fed maintains rate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 85.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Hike 25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 24.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Hike–Hike–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

72.5%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0%

Hike–Pause–Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hike–Hike–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 2.9%

Hike–Hike–Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hike–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

Hike–Pause–Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hike–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 2.1%

Hike–Hike–Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause–Pause–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Hike–Hike · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause–Pause–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Pause–Hike · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Pause–Pause · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pause–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Hike–Pause · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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