Market comparison
Fernandez vs Alexandrova
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $51K reported volume
Observed 14s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $3K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Fernandez Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ekaterina Alexandrova Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 71.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 73.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 55.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Game Spread +/-0.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 53.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 58.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 46.5% Bid 46.0% · Ask 47.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 45.5% Bid 44.0% · Ask 47.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 44.5% Bid 42.0% · Ask 47.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 40.5% Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 34.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 24.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0% Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Fernandez
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
71.5%
Bid 70.0% · Ask 73.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
55.0%
Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Game Spread +/-0.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
53.5%
Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 42.0% · Ask 58.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
46.5%
Bid 46.0% · Ask 47.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
45.5%
Bid 44.0% · Ask 47.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
44.5%
Bid 42.0% · Ask 47.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
42.0%
Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
40.5%
Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
34.5%
Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
24.5%
Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0%
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.