Market comparison

FL-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 51s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for FL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bean, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 70.0% Bean, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Bean, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 54.0% Bean, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Bean, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 37.0% Bean, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Bean, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 24.0% Bean, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Bean, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 2.7% · Ask 14.0% Bean, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Bean, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.3% Bean, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Bean, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.1% Bean, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat 3%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.7% Democrat 3%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Holloway, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 5.1% · Ask 16.0% Holloway, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.3% Bid 7.9% · Ask 12.8% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.7% Bid 0.9% · Ask 10.4% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 25.0% Republican 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.8% Bid 22.6% · Ask 25.0% Republican 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 27.0% Republican 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0% Republican 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% Republican 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 18-21% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 7.8% Republican 18-21% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 21%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.9% Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.7% Republican 21%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Bean, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 70.0%

Bean, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Bean, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 54.0%

Bean, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Bean, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 37.0%

Bean, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Bean, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 24.0%

Bean, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Bean, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 14.0%

Bean, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Bean, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.3%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.3%

Bean, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Bean, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.1%

Bean, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat 3%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.7%

Democrat 3%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Holloway, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.1% · Ask 16.0%

Holloway, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.3%

Bid 7.9% · Ask 12.8%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.7%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 10.4%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 25.0%

Republican 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.8%

Bid 22.6% · Ask 25.0%

Republican 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 27.0%

Republican 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0%

Republican 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

Republican 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 18-21%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 7.8%

Republican 18-21%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 21%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.7%

Republican 21%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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