Market comparison
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano
2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗17 outcomes · $7K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $3K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Donald Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Filippo Romano Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 69.5% Bid 66.0% · Ask 73.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 59.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 96.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 55.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 61.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 51.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 54.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Game Spread +/-0.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 51.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 53.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 51.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 49.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 48.5% Bid 42.0% · Ask 55.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 48.0% Bid — · Ask 96.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 48.0% Bid — · Ask 96.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 48.0% Bid — · Ask 96.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 44.5% Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 38.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0% Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 33.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0% Set Handicap: Matthew William Donald (-1.5) vs Filippo Romano (+1.5) Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 28.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0% Set Handicap: Filippo Romano (-1.5) vs Matthew William Donald (+1.5) Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Donald
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Filippo Romano
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
69.5%
Bid 66.0% · Ask 73.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
59.0%
Bid 22.0% · Ask 96.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
55.5%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 61.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
51.5%
Bid 49.0% · Ask 54.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Game Spread +/-0.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
51.5%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 53.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
51.0%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
49.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
48.5%
Bid 42.0% · Ask 55.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid — · Ask 96.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid — · Ask 96.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid — · Ask 96.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
44.5%
Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
38.5%
Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0%
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
33.5%
Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0%
Set Handicap: Matthew William Donald (-1.5) vs Filippo Romano (+1.5)
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano Set 1 O/U 8.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
28.5%
Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0%
Set Handicap: Filippo Romano (-1.5) vs Matthew William Donald (+1.5)
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.