Market comparison

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

1 venue · 8 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

8 outcomes · $26K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
Outcome	Kalshi	Difference
Before Apr 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 16.0% Before Apr 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 44.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	76.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 76.0% Before Jan 1, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jul 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 31.0% Before Jul 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jul 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 58.0% Before Jul 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

Before Apr 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 16.0%

Before Apr 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 44.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 76.0%

Before Jan 1, 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jul 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 31.0%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jul 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 58.0%

Before Jul 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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