Market comparison

Game 1: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee

2 venues · 36 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $624K reported volume

Observed 46s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

35 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 46s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Game 1: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Tampa Bay Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	38.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0% Tampa Bay Open Kalshi ↗	37.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0% Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 65.0% 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	46.5% Bid 46.0% · Ask 47.0% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 33.0% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0% 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0% 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 36.0% 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 21.0% 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Extra Innings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 16.0% Extra Innings Open Polymarket ↗	—
Milwaukee Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 63.0% Milwaukee Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.5% Bid 78.0% · Ask 81.0% Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 66.0% Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Milwaukee Brewers O/U 3.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.5% Bid 47.0% · Ask 50.0% Milwaukee Brewers O/U 3.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Milwaukee Brewers O/U 4.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 38.0% Milwaukee Brewers O/U 4.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Milwaukee Brewers O/U 5.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 59.0% Milwaukee Brewers O/U 5.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
NRFI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.5% Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0% NRFI Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 3.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	80.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 82.0% O/U 3.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 4.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.5% Bid 71.0% · Ask 72.0% O/U 4.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 5.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% O/U 5.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 6.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0% O/U 6.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 7.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0% O/U 7.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 8.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 29.0% O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 9.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0% O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.5% Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0% Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 30.0% Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0% Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0% Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0% Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tampa Bay Rays O/U 0.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 99.0% Tampa Bay Rays O/U 0.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tampa Bay Rays O/U 1.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.5% Bid 67.0% · Ask 72.0% Tampa Bay Rays O/U 1.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tampa Bay Rays O/U 2.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 53.0% Tampa Bay Rays O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tampa Bay Rays O/U 3.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.0% Tampa Bay Rays O/U 3.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tampa Bay Rays O/U 4.5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 29.0% Tampa Bay Rays O/U 4.5 Open Polymarket ↗	—

Tampa Bay

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0%

Tampa Bay

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Game 1: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee

Kalshi

Polymarket

Known rule differences between venues

Tampa Bay

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Kalshi

Polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

Kalshi

Polymarket

Extra Innings

Kalshi

Polymarket

Milwaukee

Kalshi

Polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers O/U 3.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers O/U 4.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers O/U 5.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

NRFI

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 3.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 4.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 5.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 6.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 7.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 8.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

O/U 9.5

Kalshi

Polymarket

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Kalshi

Polymarket

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)

Kalshi

Polymarket

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)