Market comparison

Guam Governor winner?

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $85K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $8K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Guam Governor winner?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Therese Terlaje Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	27.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 28.0% Therese Terlaje Open Kalshi ↗	26.2% Bid 25.0% · Ask 27.4% Therese Terlaje (D) Open Polymarket ↗	0.8 pp
Frank Blas Jr. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Frank Blas Jr. · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Joe San Agustin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Joe San Agustin · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Josh Tenorio Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Josh Tenorio · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tony Ada Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 66.0% Tony Ada Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Vicente Ada (R) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 75.0% Vicente Ada (R) Open Polymarket ↗	—

Therese Terlaje

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 28.0%

Therese Terlaje

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

26.2%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 27.4%

Therese Terlaje (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Frank Blas Jr.

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Frank Blas Jr. · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Joe San Agustin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Joe San Agustin · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Josh Tenorio

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Josh Tenorio · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tony Ada

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 66.0%

Tony Ada

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Vicente Ada (R)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 75.0%

Vicente Ada (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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