The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Hacha Esports vs. Isurus

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 48s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 48s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Isurus

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

70.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0%

Match Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

73.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 73.0%

Isurus

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Hacha Esports

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 30.0%

Hacha Esports

Open Kalshi ↗

Map 1 Winner

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

70.5%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 81.0%

Map 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Map 2 Winner

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

61.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 81.0%

Map 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

O/U 2.5 Games

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 34.0%

O/U 2.5 Games

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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