Market comparison

Hawaii's 1st District margin of victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $35K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Hawaii's 1st District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Case, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.5% Bid 89.0% · Ask 99.6% Case, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 94.0% Case, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 84.0% Case, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 70.0% Case, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	49.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 55.0% Case, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 40.0% Case, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 48+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0% Case, 48+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 51+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.3% Bid 7.6% · Ask 19.0% Case, 51+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Case, 54+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 3.6% · Ask 15.0% Case, 54+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat 0-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Democrat 0-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Democrat 15-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 0.9% · Ask 7.8% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.1% Democrat 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.6% Bid 22.3% · Ask 22.8% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% Democrat 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 50-55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 25.1% · Ask 30.9% Democrat 50-55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 55%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.3% Bid 8.0% · Ask 8.6% Democrat 55%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Case, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.5%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 99.6%

Case, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 94.0%

Case, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 84.0%

Case, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 39+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 70.0%

Case, 39+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 42+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 55.0%

Case, 42+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 45+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 40.0%

Case, 45+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 48+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0%

Case, 48+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 51+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

13.3%

Bid 7.6% · Ask 19.0%

Case, 51+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Case, 54+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 15.0%

Case, 54+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat 0-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Democrat 0-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Democrat 15-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 7.8%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.1%

Democrat 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.6%

Bid 22.3% · Ask 22.8%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Democrat 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 50-55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 25.1% · Ask 30.9%

Democrat 50-55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 55%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.3%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 8.6%

Democrat 55%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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