Market comparison

HI-02 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $22K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for HI-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Democrat 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.8% Democrat 10-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.9% Bid 8.3% · Ask 9.6% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 4.9% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.4% Bid 28.4% · Ask 34.3% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0% Democrat 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 19.0% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.8% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.5% Democrat 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 50%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.9% Democrat 50%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Tokuda, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	92.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 97.7% Tokuda, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.7% Tokuda, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.5% Tokuda, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 86.0% Tokuda, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 32+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 72.0% Tokuda, 32+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 35+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 56.0% Tokuda, 35+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 38+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 39.0% Tokuda, 38+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 41+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 25.0% Tokuda, 41+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tokuda, 44+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 3.4% · Ask 15.0% Tokuda, 44+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democrat 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Democrat 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.8%

Democrat 10-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.9%

Bid 8.3% · Ask 9.6%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 4.9%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

31.4%

Bid 28.4% · Ask 34.3%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0%

Democrat 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 19.0%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.8%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.5%

Democrat 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 50%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.9%

Democrat 50%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tokuda, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 97.7%

Tokuda, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.7%

Tokuda, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.5%

Tokuda, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 86.0%

Tokuda, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 32+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 72.0%

Tokuda, 32+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 35+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 56.0%

Tokuda, 35+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 38+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 39.0%

Tokuda, 38+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 41+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 25.0%

Tokuda, 41+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Tokuda, 44+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 3.4% · Ask 15.0%

Tokuda, 44+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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