Market comparison
Highest temperature in Houston on Oct 22, 2026?
2 venues · 13 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗11 outcomes · $24K reported volume
Observed 52s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 22, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $19K reported volume
Observed 52s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
- Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
- Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
82° to 83° Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
84° to 85° Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
86° to 87° Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
88° to 89° Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
73°F or below Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
74-75°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
76-77°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
78-79°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
80-81°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
81° or below Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
90-91°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
90° or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
92°F or higher Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
82° to 83°
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
84° to 85°
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
86° to 87°
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
88° to 89°
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
73°F or below
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
74-75°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
76-77°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
78-79°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
80-81°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
81° or below
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
90-91°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
90° or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
92°F or higher
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.