Market comparison
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 22, 2026?
2 venues · 13 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $312K reported volume
Observed 14s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗11 outcomes · $26K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 22, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
- Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
- Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
64-65°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
66-67°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
68-69°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
70-71°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 1.5 pp | ||
55°F or below Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
56-57°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
58-59°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
60-61°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
62-63°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
63° or below Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
72-73°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
72° or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
74°F or higher Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
64-65°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
66-67°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
68-69°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
70-71°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
55°F or below
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
56-57°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
58-59°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
60-61°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
62-63°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
63° or below
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
72-73°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
72° or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
74°F or higher
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.