Market comparison
Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 22, 2026?
2 venues · 13 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $138K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗11 outcomes · $29K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 22, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the station; Polymarket on the highest/lowest hourly reading in NOAA's station time series. The CLI extreme can fall between hourly readings, so the two can differ by a degree or more on the same day.
- Matched only when both venues name the same station (Kalshi CLI code = Polymarket NOAA site); NYC (Central Park vs LaGuardia), Chicago (Midway vs O'Hare), Dallas (DFW vs Love Field) and Denver (DEN vs Buckley) are different stations and are not matched.
- Bucket grids are often offset by one degree; only identical integer ranges are linked.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
80-81°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.1 pp | ||
82-83°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.4 pp | ||
84-85°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.6 pp | ||
86-87°F Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 0.9 pp | ||
71°F or below Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
72-73°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
74-75°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
76-77°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
78-79°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
79° or below Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
88-89°F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
88° or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
90°F or higher Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
80-81°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
82-83°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.4 pp
84-85°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.6 pp
86-87°F
Resolution sources differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
71°F or below
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
72-73°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
74-75°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
76-77°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
78-79°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
79° or below
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
88-89°F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
88° or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
90°F or higher
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.