The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Hoffenheim vs Lyon

2 venues · 3 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

3 outcomes · $242K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $140K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 22, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Draw

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Draw (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Olympique Lyonnais)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Hoffenheim

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0%

Hoffenheim

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

55.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Lyon

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

Lyon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0%

Olympique Lyonnais

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.