Market comparison

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $76K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 7m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $35K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
4.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 88.0% 4.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	47.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 47.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 44.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 64.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 64.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.29% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 94.5% · Ask 100.0% 5.29% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.32% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.2% Bid 2.6% · Ask 5.7% 5.32% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.8% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.5% 5.35% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.38% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9% 5.38% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.41% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9% 5.41% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.9% 5.45% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.4% 5.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.55% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.5% 5.60% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 28.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 77.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 6% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or higher Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 6% or higher Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

4.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 88.0%

4.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 47.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 44.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 64.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 64.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.29%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 94.5% · Ask 100.0%

5.29% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

5.32%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 5.7%

5.32%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.8%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.5%

5.35%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.38%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9%

5.38%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.41%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9%

5.41%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.9%

5.45%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.4%

5.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.55%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.5%

5.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 28.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 77.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

6% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or higher

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

6% or higher

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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