Market comparison

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

2 venues · 34 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
↑ 4.95 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	13.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 13.0% 4.95% or above Open Kalshi ↗	7.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0% 4.95% Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
↑ 5 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	16.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 24.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	7.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% 5.00% Open Polymarket ↗	9.0 pp
↑ 5.1 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗	3.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.9% 5.10% Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
↑ 5.05 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% 5.05% or above Open Kalshi ↗	5.3% Bid 3.3% · Ask 7.2% 5.05% Open Polymarket ↗	0.2 pp
↑ 5.15 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗	3.2% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.3% 5.15% Open Polymarket ↗	1.7 pp
4.86% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 31.0% 4.86% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.89% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 22.0% 4.89% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.92% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% 4.92% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.93% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	45.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 62.0% 4.93% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.94% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 15.0% 4.94% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.96% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 12.0% 4.96% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.97% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 12.0% 4.97% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.98% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.98% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.99% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.99% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.01% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 24.0% 5.01% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.02% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 25.0% 5.02% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.2% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.2% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.03% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0% 5.03% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.04% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.04% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.06% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.06% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.07% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.07% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.08% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0% 5.08% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.09% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 10.0% 5.09% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.11% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.11% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.12% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.12% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.13% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0% 5.13% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.14% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.14% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.16% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0% 5.16% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.17% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.17% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.18% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 25.0% 5.18% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.19% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0% 5.19% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.21% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.21% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.22% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.22% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.2% Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.8% 5.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—

↑ 4.95

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 13.0%

4.95% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

4.95%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

↑ 5

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 24.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

5.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.0 pp

↑ 5.1

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.9%

5.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

↑ 5.05

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

5.05% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 3.3% · Ask 7.2%

5.05%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

↑ 5.15

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.3%

5.15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

4.86%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 31.0%

4.86%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.89%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 22.0%

4.89%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.92%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

4.92%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.93% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 62.0%

4.93% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.94% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 15.0%

4.94% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.96% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 12.0%

4.96% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.97% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 12.0%

4.97% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.98% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.98% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.99% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.99% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.01% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 24.0%

5.01% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.02% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 25.0%

5.02% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.2% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.2% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.03% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

5.03% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.04% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.04% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.06% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.06% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.07% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.07% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.08% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

5.08% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.09% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 10.0%

5.09% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.11% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.11% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.12% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.12% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.13% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0%

5.13% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.14% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.14% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.16% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

5.16% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.17% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.17% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.18% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 25.0%

5.18% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.19% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

5.19% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.21% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.21% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.22% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.22% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.8%

5.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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