Market comparison

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $76K reported volume

Observed 15s ago

Observed 9m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
4.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% 4.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	45.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 45.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 48.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.67% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.67% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0% 5.70% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.73% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0% 5.73% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.76% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.76% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% 5.80% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.85% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.4% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.8% 5.85% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.8% 5.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.4% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.7% 5.95% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 65.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.6% Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.8% 6.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—
6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 6% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or higher Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 6% or higher Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

4.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

4.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 45.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 48.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.67%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.67% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

5.70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0%

5.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.73%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0%

5.73%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.76%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.76%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

5.80%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.85%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.8%

5.85%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.8%

5.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.7%

5.95%

Open Polymarket ↗

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 65.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.8%

6.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

6% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or higher

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

6% or higher

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets