Market comparison

How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?

2 venues · 41 outcome rows · 11 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

47 outcomes · $77.6M reported volume

Observed 40s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $11.0M reported volume

Observed 40s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 100,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	20.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% ↑ 100,000 Open Polymarket ↗	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Above $99,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 110,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	7.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% ↑ 110,000 Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Above $109,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 120,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% ↑ 120,000 Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Above $119,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 130,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	3.1% Bid 3.1% · Ask 3.2% ↑ 130,000 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $129,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	0.2 pp
↑ 140,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.8% Bid 2.7% · Ask 2.8% ↑ 140,000 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $139,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	0.2 pp
↑ 150,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.1% Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.1% ↑ 150,000 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $149,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
↑ 200,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0% ↑ 200,000 Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $199,999.99 Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
↓ 40,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	3.0% Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.1% ↓ 40,000 Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Below $40,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
↓ 45,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.1% Bid 4.0% · Ask 4.2% ↓ 45,000 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Below $45,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.9 pp
↓ 50,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	7.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% ↓ 50,000 Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Below $50,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↓ 55,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	9.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% ↓ 55,000 Open Polymarket ↗	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% Below $55,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
1,000,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ↑ 1,000,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5% ↓ 5,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
10,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.5% ↓ 10,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
15,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7% ↓ 15,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
20,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% ↓ 20,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
25,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.3% ↓ 25,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
30,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 1.6% · Ask 1.7% ↓ 30,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
35,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 1.6% · Ask 1.7% ↓ 35,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
60,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 60,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 60,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 14.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% ↓ 60,000 Open Polymarket ↗ — Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 60,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
65,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 65,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 65,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 65,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 23.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% ↓ 65,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
70,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 70,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 70,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 35.5% Bid 35.0% · Ask 36.0% ↓ 70,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
75,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 75,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 75,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 75,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 75,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
80,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 80,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 80,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
85,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
90,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 90,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 53.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0% ↑ 90,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
95,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0% ↑ 95,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
160,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 1.9% · Ask 2.0% ↑ 160,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
170,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.2% ↑ 170,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
180,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.3% ↑ 180,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
190,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.0% ↑ 190,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
250,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5% ↑ 250,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
500,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% ↑ 500,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Below $60,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $60,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $65,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $65,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $70,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $70,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $72,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $72,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $74,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $74,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $76,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $76,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $78,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $78,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $80,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $80,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 100,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

↑ 100,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Above $99,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 110,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

↑ 110,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Above $109,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 120,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

↑ 120,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above $119,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 130,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

3.1%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 3.2%

↑ 130,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $129,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

↑ 140,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 2.8%

↑ 140,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $139,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

↑ 150,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.1%

↑ 150,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $149,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

↑ 200,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0%

↑ 200,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $199,999.99

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

↓ 40,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.1%

↓ 40,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Below $40,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

↓ 45,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 4.2%

↓ 45,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Below $45,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

↓ 50,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

↓ 50,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Below $50,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↓ 55,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

↓ 55,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

Below $55,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

1,000,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

↑ 1,000,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5%

↓ 5,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

10,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.5%

↓ 10,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

15,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7%

↓ 15,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

20,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

↓ 20,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

25,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.3%

↓ 25,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

30,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 1.7%

↓ 30,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

35,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 1.7%

↓ 35,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

60,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 60,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 60,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

14.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

↓ 60,000

Open Polymarket ↗

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 60,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

65,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 65,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 65,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 65,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

23.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

↓ 65,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

70,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 70,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 70,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

35.5%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 36.0%

↓ 70,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

75,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 75,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 75,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 75,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 75,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

80,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 80,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 80,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

85,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

90,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 90,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

53.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0%

↑ 90,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

95,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0%

↑ 95,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

160,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 2.0%

↑ 160,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

170,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.2%

↑ 170,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

180,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.3%

↑ 180,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

190,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.0%

↑ 190,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

250,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5%

↑ 250,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

500,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

↑ 500,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Below $60,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $60,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $65,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $65,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $70,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $70,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $72,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $72,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $74,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $74,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $76,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $76,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $78,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $78,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $80,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $80,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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