Market comparison

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

2 venues · 42 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $1.1M reported volume

Observed 59s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $46K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 5.3 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	42.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 44.0% 5.3% Open Polymarket ↗	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.3% or above Open Kalshi ↗	57.0 pp
↑ 5.4 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	30.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0% 5.4% Open Polymarket ↗	33.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 44.0% 5.4% or above Open Kalshi ↗	3.0 pp
↑ 5.5 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	18.6% Bid 17.7% · Ask 19.4% 5.5% Open Polymarket ↗	29.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 32.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	10.4 pp
4.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.3% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.4% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.5% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.6% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.8% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.0% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.1% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.01% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.01% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.1% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.2% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.02% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.02% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.2% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.2% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.3% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.03% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.03% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.04% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.04% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.05% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.05% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.06% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.06% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.8% Bid 5.5% · Ask 6.0% 5.7% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.07% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.07% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.08% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.08% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.09% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.09% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.11% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.11% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.12% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.12% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.13% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.13% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.14% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.14% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	55.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.15% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.16% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.16% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.17% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.17% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.18% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.18% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.19% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.19% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.21% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.21% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.22% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.22% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.23% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.23% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.24% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.24% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.25% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.35% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 47.0% 5.35% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.45% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 34.0% 5.45% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
6.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.1% Bid 4.5% · Ask 5.7% 6.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

↑ 5.3

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

42.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 44.0%

5.3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.3% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 57.0 pp

↑ 5.4

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0%

5.4%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 44.0%

5.4% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

↑ 5.5

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

18.6%

Bid 17.7% · Ask 19.4%

5.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 32.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 10.4 pp

4.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.3% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.4% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.5% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.6% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.8% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.0% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.1% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.01% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.01% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.1% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.2% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.02% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.02% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.2% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.2% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.3% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.03% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.03% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.04% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.04% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.05% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.05% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.06% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.06% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.8%

Bid 5.5% · Ask 6.0%

5.7%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.07% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.07% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.08% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.08% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.09% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.09% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.11% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.11% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.12% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.12% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.13% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.13% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.14% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.14% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.15% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.16% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.16% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.17% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.17% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.18% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.18% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.19% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.19% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.21% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.21% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.22% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.22% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.23% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.23% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.24% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.24% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.25% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.35% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 47.0%

5.35% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.45% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 34.0%

5.45% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 4.5% · Ask 5.7%

6.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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