Market comparison

How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

2 venues · 38 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $260K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $39K reported volume

Observed 6m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 5.7 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	39.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 41.0% 5.70% Open Polymarket ↗	37.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 37.0% 5.7% or above Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
↑ 5.8 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	25.2% Bid 21.6% · Ask 28.8% 5.80% Open Polymarket ↗	22.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 27.0% 5.8% or above Open Kalshi ↗	3.2 pp
5.3% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.3% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.4% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.4% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.5% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.6% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.31% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.31% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.32% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.32% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.33% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.33% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.34% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.34% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.35% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.35% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.36% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.36% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.37% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.37% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.38% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.38% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.39% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.39% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.40% · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 87.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 96.0% 5.40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.41% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	58.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.41% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.42% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.42% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.43% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.43% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.44% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.44% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.45% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.45% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.45% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.46% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.46% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.47% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.47% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.48% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.48% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.49% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.49% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.2% · Ask 100.0% 5.50% · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 49.5% Bid 36.0% · Ask 63.0% 5.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.51% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.51% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.52% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.52% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.53% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.53% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.54% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.54% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.55% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.60% · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 53.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 79.0% 5.60% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.65% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.65% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.65% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 31.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 16.0% 5.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
6.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.9% Bid 8.5% · Ask 9.3% 6.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

↑ 5.7

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 41.0%

5.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 37.0%

5.7% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

↑ 5.8

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

25.2%

Bid 21.6% · Ask 28.8%

5.80%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 27.0%

5.8% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.2 pp

5.3% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.3% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.4% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.4% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.5% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.6% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.31% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.31% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.32% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.32% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.33% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.33% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.34% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.34% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.35% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.35% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.36% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.36% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.37% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.37% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.38% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.38% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.39% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.39% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.40% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

87.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 96.0%

5.40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.41% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.41% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.42% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.42% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.43% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.43% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.44% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.44% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.45% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.45% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.45% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.46% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.46% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.47% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.47% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.48% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.48% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.49% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.49% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.2% · Ask 100.0%

5.50% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

49.5%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 63.0%

5.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.51% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.51% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.52% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.52% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.53% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.53% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.54% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.54% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.55% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.60% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

53.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 79.0%

5.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.65% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.65% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.65% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 31.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 16.0%

5.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

6.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.9%

Bid 8.5% · Ask 9.3%

6.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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