Market comparison

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

2 venues · 51 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

47 outcomes · $1.0M reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $139K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
4.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	87.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 87.0% 4.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5,900 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.4% Bid 2.1% · Ask 4.4% 5,900 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	47.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 47.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 74.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.1% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.01% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.01% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.02% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.02% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.2% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.2% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.3% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.3% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.03% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.03% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.04% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.04% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.4% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 46.0% 5.4% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 55.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 29.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 74.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.05% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.05% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.06% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.06% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.07% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.07% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.08% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.08% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.09% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	74.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.09% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.11% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.11% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.12% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.12% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.13% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.13% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.14% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.14% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 44.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 55.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.15% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.16% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	61.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.16% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.17% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.17% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.18% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	84.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.18% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.19% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.19% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.21% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.21% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.22% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.22% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.23% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.23% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.24% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.24% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 40.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.25% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.35% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.35% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.45% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 91.0% 5.45% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 12.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	67.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 79.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,000 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.4% Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4% 6,000 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,100 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.6% Bid 3.7% · Ask 6.6% 6,100 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,200 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.4% Bid 5.2% · Ask 7.4% 6,200 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,300 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.1% Bid 7.1% · Ask 10.8% 6,300 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,400 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0% 6,400 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,500 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,500 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,600 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,600 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 6% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 4.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.6% Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.1% Below 4.60% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.1% Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.5% Below 4.80% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0% Below 4.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Below 4.95% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Below 5.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.05% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Below 5.05% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 43.0% Below 5.10% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.5% Bid 42.0% · Ask 45.0% Below 5.15% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 57.0% Below 5.20% Open Polymarket ↗	—

4.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

87.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 87.0%

4.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5,900 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.4%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 4.4%

5,900 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 47.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

74.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.1% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.01% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.01% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.02% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.02% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.2% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.2% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.3% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.3% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.03% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.03% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.04% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.04% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.4% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 46.0%

5.4% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 55.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

29.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 74.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.05% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.05% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.06% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.06% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.07% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.07% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.08% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.08% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.09% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.09% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.11% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.11% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.12% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.12% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.13% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.13% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.14% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.14% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 44.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

55.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.15% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.16% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.16% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.17% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.17% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.18% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.18% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.19% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.19% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.21% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.21% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.22% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.22% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.23% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.23% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.24% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.24% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 40.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.25% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.35% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.35% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.45% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 91.0%

5.45% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 12.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 79.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,000 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.4%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4%

6,000 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,100 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.6%

Bid 3.7% · Ask 6.6%

6,100 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,200 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.4%

Bid 5.2% · Ask 7.4%

6,200 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,300 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.1%

Bid 7.1% · Ask 10.8%

6,300 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,400 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0%

6,400 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,500 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,500 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,600 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,600 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

6% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 4.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.1%

Below 4.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.5%

Below 4.80%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0%

Below 4.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

Below 4.95%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Below 5.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.05%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

Below 5.05%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

41.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 43.0%

Below 5.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 45.0%

Below 5.15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

56.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 57.0%

Below 5.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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