Market comparison

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

2 venues · 26 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $1.0M reported volume

Observed 40s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $26K reported volume

Observed 9m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
4.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% 4.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5,900 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9% 5,900 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	45.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 45.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 50.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 65.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,000 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.4% Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4% 6,000 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,100 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.6% Bid 3.6% · Ask 6.6% 6,100 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,200 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.4% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.4% 6,200 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,300 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.7% Bid 7.7% · Ask 10.6% 6,300 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,400 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0% 6,400 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,500 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,500 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,600 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,600 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 6% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or higher Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 6% or higher Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 5.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 59.0% Below 5.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.30% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.35% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.40% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.43% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.43% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.46% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 91.1% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.46% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.49% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.49% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.52% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.52% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Below 5.55% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

4.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

4.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5,900 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9%

5,900 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 45.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 50.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 65.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,000 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.4%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4%

6,000 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,100 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.6%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 6.6%

6,100 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,200 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.4%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.4%

6,200 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,300 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.7%

Bid 7.7% · Ask 10.6%

6,300 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,400 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0%

6,400 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,500 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,500 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,600 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,600 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

6% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or higher

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

6% or higher

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 5.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 59.0%

Below 5.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.30% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.35% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.40% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.43%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.43% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.46%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 91.1% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.46% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.49%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.49% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.52%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.52% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below 5.55% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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