Market comparison

How low will ETH get in October?

2 venues · 32 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

41 outcomes · $2.6M reported volume

Observed 26s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $170K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will ETH get in October?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 3,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.1% Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.1% ↑ 3,000 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $3,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
↑ 3,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% ↑ 3,500 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $3,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.7 pp
↑ 4,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ↑ 4,500 Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above $4,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
↓ 2,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	6.3% Bid 6.1% · Ask 6.5% ↓ 2,000 Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% Below $2,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.7 pp
1,800 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 1.4% · Ask 1.6% ↓ 1,800 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1,900 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.6% Bid 2.4% · Ask 2.8% ↓ 1,900 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,100 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% ↓ 2,100 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,200 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% ↓ 2,200 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,300 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	52.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% ↓ 2,300 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,400 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,400 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 58.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 59.0% ↑ 2,500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,600 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,600 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 29.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0% ↑ 2,600 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,700 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,700 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,700 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,700 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,700 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,700 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,700 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 13.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% ↑ 2,700 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,800 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% ↑ 2,800 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,900 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 3.8% · Ask 4.5% ↑ 2,900 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3,100 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.6% ↑ 3,100 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3,200 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0% ↑ 3,200 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3,300 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.6% ↑ 3,300 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3,400 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5% ↑ 3,400 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3,600 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% ↑ 3,600 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above $3,250.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $3,250.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $3,750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $3,750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $4,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above $4,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $4,250.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above $4,250.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $4,750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above $4,750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Below $1,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1,250.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Below $1,250.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1,500.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Below $1,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1,750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Below $1,750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $2,250.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 41.0% Below $2,250.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $2,500.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $2,500.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Below $750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 3,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.1%

↑ 3,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $3,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

↑ 3,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

↑ 3,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $3,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

↑ 4,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

↑ 4,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above $4,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

↓ 2,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 6.1% · Ask 6.5%

↓ 2,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0%

Below $2,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

1,800

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 1.6%

↓ 1,800

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1,900

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 2.4% · Ask 2.8%

↓ 1,900

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,100

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

↓ 2,100

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,200

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

↓ 2,200

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,300

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

52.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

↓ 2,300

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,400

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,400 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 59.0%

↑ 2,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,600

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,600 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

29.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0%

↑ 2,600

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,700

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,700 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,700 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,700 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,700 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,700 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,700 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

13.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

↑ 2,700

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,800

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

↑ 2,800

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,900

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 3.8% · Ask 4.5%

↑ 2,900

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3,100

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.6%

↑ 3,100

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3,200

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0%

↑ 3,200

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3,300

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.6%

↑ 3,300

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3,400

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5%

↑ 3,400

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3,600

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

↑ 3,600

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above $3,250.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $3,250.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $3,750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $3,750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $4,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above $4,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $4,250.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above $4,250.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $4,750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above $4,750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Below $1,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1,250.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Below $1,250.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1,500.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Below $1,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1,750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Below $1,750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $2,250.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 41.0%

Below $2,250.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $2,500.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $2,500.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Below $750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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