Market comparison

How low will Ethereum get in 2026?

2 venues · 32 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $18.4M reported volume

Observed 23s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $4.0M reported volume

Observed 23s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will Ethereum get in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 3,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	13.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% ↑ 3,500 Open Polymarket ↗	15.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% Above $3,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 4,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	6.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% ↑ 4,000 Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Above $4,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
↑ 4,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.3% Bid 3.8% · Ask 4.8% ↑ 4,500 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Above $4,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.7 pp
↑ 5,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	3.2% Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.5% ↑ 5,000 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $5,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.2 pp
↑ 6,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.4% Bid 2.3% · Ask 2.4% ↑ 6,000 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $6,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.6 pp
↓ 1,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.9% Bid 2.4% · Ask 3.5% ↓ 1,000 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Below $1,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
↓ 1,250 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	8.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% ↓ 1,250 Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Below $1,250.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↓ 1,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	9.6% Bid 9.2% · Ask 10.0% ↓ 1,500 Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Below $1,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
1,750 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 1,750 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 1,750 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 15.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% ↓ 1,750 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 28.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% ↓ 2,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,250 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,250 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 67.5% Bid 67.0% · Ask 68.0% ↓ 2,250 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2,750 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2,750 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% ↑ 3,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.0% ↑ 5,500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
6,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.1% ↑ 6,500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
7,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.2% ↑ 7,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
7,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% ↑ 7,500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
8,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% ↑ 8,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
10,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 0.9% ↑ 10,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.4% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.9% ↓ 500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
600 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.0% ↓ 600 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
700 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.4% Bid 0.8% · Ask 2.0% ↓ 700 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
800 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.7% ↓ 800 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above $3,750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Above $3,750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $4,250.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Above $4,250.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $4,750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Above $4,750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1,750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $1,750.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $2,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $2,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $2,250.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $2,250.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $2,500.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $2,500.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $750.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Below $750.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 3,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

↑ 3,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

Above $3,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 4,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

↑ 4,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Above $4,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

↑ 4,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 3.8% · Ask 4.8%

↑ 4,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above $4,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

↑ 5,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.5%

↑ 5,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $5,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

↑ 6,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 2.3% · Ask 2.4%

↑ 6,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $6,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

↓ 1,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 2.4% · Ask 3.5%

↓ 1,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Below $1,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

↓ 1,250

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

↓ 1,250

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Below $1,250.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↓ 1,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

9.6%

Bid 9.2% · Ask 10.0%

↓ 1,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Below $1,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

1,750

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 1,750 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 1,750 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

15.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

↓ 1,750

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

28.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

↓ 2,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,250

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,250 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

67.5%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 68.0%

↓ 2,250

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2,750

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2,750 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

↑ 3,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.0%

↑ 5,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

6,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.1%

↑ 6,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

7,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.2%

↑ 7,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

7,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

↑ 7,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

8,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

↑ 8,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

10,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 0.9%

↑ 10,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.9%

↓ 500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

600

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.0%

↓ 600

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

700

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 2.0%

↓ 700

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

800

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.7%

↓ 800

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above $3,750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Above $3,750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $4,250.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Above $4,250.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $4,750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Above $4,750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1,750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $1,750.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $2,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $2,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $2,250.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $2,250.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $2,500.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $2,500.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $750.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Below $750.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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