Market comparison

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

2 venues · 47 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

40 outcomes · $33K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $20K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
↓ 4.69 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	43.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 57.0% 4.69% or below Open Kalshi ↗	49.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 71.0% Below 4.70% Open Polymarket ↗	6.0 pp
↓ 4.74 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	62.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 73.0% 4.74% or below Open Kalshi ↗	78.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 92.0% Below 4.75% Open Polymarket ↗	16.0 pp
4.7% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	46.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 60.0% 4.7% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.8% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.8% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.9% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.9% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.66% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 48.0% 4.66% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.67% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 51.0% 4.67% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.68% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	40.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 54.0% 4.68% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.71% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 63.0% 4.71% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.72% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	54.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 67.0% 4.72% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.73% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 70.0% 4.73% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.75% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	66.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 77.0% 4.75% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.76% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	62.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 79.0% 4.76% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.77% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 85.0% 4.77% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.78% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.78% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.79% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.79% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.81% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.81% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.82% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.82% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.83% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.83% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.84% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.84% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.85% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.85% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.86% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.86% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.87% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.87% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.88% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.88% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.89% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.89% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.91% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.91% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.92% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.92% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.93% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.93% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.94% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.94% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.95% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.95% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.96% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	91.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.96% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.97% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.97% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.98% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.98% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.99% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.99% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.01% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.01% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.02% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.02% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.03% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.03% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.04% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.04% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.05% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.05% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 4.65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0% Below 4.65% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.80% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.83% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.83% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.86% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.86% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.89% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.89% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.92% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 91.6% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.92% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.95% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

↓ 4.69

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

43.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 57.0%

4.69% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 71.0%

Below 4.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.0 pp

↓ 4.74

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 73.0%

4.74% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

78.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 92.0%

Below 4.75%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 16.0 pp

4.7% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

46.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 60.0%

4.7% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.8% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.8% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.9% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.9% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.66% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 48.0%

4.66% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.67% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 51.0%

4.67% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.68% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 54.0%

4.68% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.71% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 63.0%

4.71% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.72% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 67.0%

4.72% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.73% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 70.0%

4.73% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.75% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 77.0%

4.75% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.76% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 79.0%

4.76% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.77% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 85.0%

4.77% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.78% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.78% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.79% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.79% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.81% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.81% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.82% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.82% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.83% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.83% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.84% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.84% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.85% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.85% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.86% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.86% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.87% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.87% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.88% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.88% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.89% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.89% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.91% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.91% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.92% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.92% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.93% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.93% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.94% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.94% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.95% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.95% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.96% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

91.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.96% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.97% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.97% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.98% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.98% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.99% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.99% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.01% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.01% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.02% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.02% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.03% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.03% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.04% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.04% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.05% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.05% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 4.65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0%

Below 4.65%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.80% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.83%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.83% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.86%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.86% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.89%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.89% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.92%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 91.6% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.92% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.95% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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