Market comparison

How low will XRP get in 2026?

2 venues · 35 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

26 outcomes · $488K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $276K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will XRP get in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 3 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.3% Bid 4.2% · Ask 4.4% ↑ 3.00 Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Above $3.00 Open Kalshi ↗	6.7 pp
↑ 4 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.8% Bid 1.4% · Ask 4.1% ↑ 4.00 Open Polymarket ↗	10.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Above $4.00 Open Kalshi ↗	7.3 pp
↑ 5 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.9% Bid 1.5% · Ask 2.3% ↑ 5.00 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Above $5.00 Open Kalshi ↗	4.1 pp
↑ 6 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.8% Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.3% ↑ 6.00 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Above $6.00 Open Kalshi ↗	4.2 pp
0.20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.6% ↓ 0.20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
0.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.2% · Ask 2.8% ↓ 0.40 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
0.60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% ↓ 0.60 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
0.80 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% ↓ 0.80 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.00 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 30.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0% ↓ 1.00 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.20 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 77.5% Bid 76.0% · Ask 79.0% ↓ 1.20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.60 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.80 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.80 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 2.00 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 2.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% ↑ 2.60 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.80 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.9% Bid 4.7% · Ask 5.0% ↑ 2.80 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.9% Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.0% ↑ 3.20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 2.7% · Ask 4.2% ↑ 3.40 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 2.7% · Ask 4.2% ↑ 3.60 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.80 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.1% ↑ 3.80 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.0% ↑ 4.20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
8.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% ↑ 8.00 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above $1.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Above $1.50 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $2.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 19.0% Above $2.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $2.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0% Above $2.50 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $3.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 16.0% Above $3.50 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $4.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 12.0% Above $4.50 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $5.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 13.0% Above $5.50 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $6.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% Above $6.50 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $7.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Above $7.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $0.25 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Below $0.25 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $0.50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Below $0.50 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $0.75 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% Below $0.75 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $1.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 3

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 4.2% · Ask 4.4%

↑ 3.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Above $3.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 6.7 pp

↑ 4

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 4.1%

↑ 4.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Above $4.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 7.3 pp

↑ 5

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 2.3%

↑ 5.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

Above $5.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.1 pp

↑ 6

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.3%

↑ 6.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

Above $6.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.2 pp

0.20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.6%

↓ 0.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

0.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 2.8%

↓ 0.40

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

0.60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

↓ 0.60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

0.80

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

↓ 0.80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.00 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0%

↓ 1.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.20 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

77.5%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 79.0%

↓ 1.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.60 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.80

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.80 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 2.00 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 2.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

↑ 2.60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.80

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 4.7% · Ask 5.0%

↑ 2.80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3.20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.0%

↑ 3.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 4.2%

↑ 3.40

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3.60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 4.2%

↑ 3.60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3.80

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.1%

↑ 3.80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.0%

↑ 4.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

8.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

↑ 8.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above $1.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above $1.50 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $2.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 19.0%

Above $2.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $2.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0%

Above $2.50

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $3.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 16.0%

Above $3.50

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $4.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 12.0%

Above $4.50

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $5.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 13.0%

Above $5.50

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $6.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

Above $6.50

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $7.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

Above $7.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $0.25

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Below $0.25

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $0.50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Below $0.50

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $0.75

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

Below $0.75

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $1.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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