Market comparison

How low will XRP get in October?

2 venues · 26 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

22 outcomes · $359K reported volume

Observed 57s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $90K reported volume

Observed 57s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will XRP get in October?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 1.6 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	9.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% ↑ 1.60 Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% Above $1.60 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 1.8 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	3.2% Bid 1.3% · Ask 5.1% ↑ 1.80 Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Above $1.80 Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
↑ 2 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.2% Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.8% ↑ 2.00 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Above $2.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
↑ 2.2 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.1% Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.2% ↑ 2.20 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $2.20 Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
↓ 0.8 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.3% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.9% ↓ 0.80 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Below $0.80 Open Kalshi ↗	2.8 pp
↓ 1 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.5% Bid 4.5% · Ask 4.6% ↓ 1.00 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Below $1.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
↓ 1.2 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	35.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 37.0% ↓ 1.20 Open Polymarket ↗	37.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 39.0% Below $1.20 Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
0.20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% ↓ 0.20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
0.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ↓ 0.40 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
0.60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.4% ↓ 0.60 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 1.40 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 40.9% Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.9% ↑ 1.40 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.3% ↑ 2.40 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.8% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.1% ↑ 2.60 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.80 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% ↑ 2.80 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.8% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.2% ↑ 3.00 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.5% ↑ 3.20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% ↑ 4.00 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above $1.70 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0% Above $1.70 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $1.90 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Above $1.90 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $2.10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Above $2.10 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $2.30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $2.30 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $0.70 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Below $0.70 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $0.90 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Below $0.90 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1.10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 13.0% Below $1.10 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1.30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $1.30 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $1.40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $1.40 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 1.6

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

↑ 1.60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above $1.60

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 1.8

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 5.1%

↑ 1.80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Above $1.80

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

↑ 2

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.2%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.8%

↑ 2.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above $2.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

↑ 2.2

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.2%

↑ 2.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $2.20

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

↓ 0.8

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.9%

↓ 0.80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Below $0.80

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

↓ 1

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 4.5% · Ask 4.6%

↓ 1.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Below $1.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

↓ 1.2

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 37.0%

↓ 1.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 39.0%

Below $1.20

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

0.20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

↓ 0.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

0.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

↓ 0.40

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

0.60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.4%

↓ 0.60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 1.40 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

40.9%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.9%

↑ 1.40

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.3%

↑ 2.40

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.1%

↑ 2.60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2.80

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

↑ 2.80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.2%

↑ 3.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3.20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.5%

↑ 3.20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

↑ 4.00

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above $1.70

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0%

Above $1.70

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $1.90

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above $1.90

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $2.10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above $2.10

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $2.30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $2.30

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $0.70

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Below $0.70

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $0.90

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Below $0.90

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1.10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 13.0%

Below $1.10

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1.30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $1.30 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $1.40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $1.40 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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